人民币升值对我国经济的影响 英文

人民币升值对我国经济的影响 英文
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RMB appreciation on China's economic impact
First, China should improve the environmental costs through to adjust the industrial structure, get rid of a short-sighted development strategy
For over 20 years, China's traditional mercantilism pros and cons of mixed mode of development, foreign trade exchange in this process, China's economic capital increase, but the natural capital losses. At present the country has formed several large ecological danger zone-north water diversion project is an example, the scarcity of water in North China is a foregone conclusion, China had to spend 1,000 billion through the water conservancy projects to adjust the allocation of resources. The three northeast provinces and the land is a few billion years after the formation of a layer of vegetation corruption black surface, in the world, only Ukraine and the United States have a central. However, after a destructive development in recent decades, China's severe soil erosion and land. If we do not increase the region's ecological protection costs, the blind pursuit of cheap food production and exports, for several decades after this piece of land and put rocks exposed. China's wool and cashmere products to the desertification in Northwest China also has an unshirkable responsibility, ecological deterioration in the northwestern region is becoming more and more serious.
As for the cost of controlling environmental pollution is enormous, the annual 200 billion yuan of investment management, to a large extent offset by the fruits of economic development. Overall, the environmental costs included in cost accounting, China's trading costs are enormous. From the comparative advantage of speaking, many of our export products are in a relatively disadvantageous position under production. In order to export more cheaply, at the ecological destruction and environmental pollution.
Improve China's environmental costs have been imminent, the state should develop a series of legal protection measures, such as, for some product is not implementation of export tax rebates, through tax policies to reduce the export competitiveness of these products, and increase the products of environmental costs. Currently, China should conscientiously check some of the true cost of export industries, such as silk, leather, agricultural products, such as the omission of environmental costs back. Through tariff regulation, to rational use of international resources. Through out China's comparative advantage to those who are not competitive products, excluding those赔本赚吆喝export products, the final adjustment of industrial structure to achieve the purpose of doing so, on the surface and time, the possible impact on some regions and sectors of interest However, the Chinese nation's long-term survival and development.
Overall, China has yet to shake off the exports of developing countries characteristics, that is, relying on resources in exchange for technology products and services. The characteristics of this trade for developing countries is a Meet-the-Tim exports, China's marble, cement, iron and other exports has been ranked the world forefront. This trade is another characteristic: primary products and industrial products between the price of inequality, primary products to more countries to the labor and resources in exchange for the products. If developing countries are unable to reverse the trade structure, the final outcome will be depleted, trade subsequent weakness. At present, the export of such resources has made a number of African countries into unsustainable situation. In recent years China's exports of industrial products rising, the proportion of processing trade has been larger, but we must pay attention to environmental and resource costs.
Second, ancient and modern mercantilism comparison ---- face up to the pursuit of the cost of the Exchange
Shiqishiba century European countries mercantilism is the essence of live frugally, with the aim of Fuguoqiangbing, but the eyes of the monarchy were the main target is pegged to gold. Through exports, foreign earned the gold. With gold, will be the recruitment and employment soldiers, the war. However, blindly hunting gold, even in periods of heavy metal currency, mercantilism also has great risks. This is because the more gold, gold will be devalued. Spain to Latin America when the large scale importation of European gold, gold is the substantial depreciation.
If an economy engaged in export trade, while the corresponding imports of essential goods and services, the export of any economy are useful. However, if only to Jichu export of gold or U.S. dollars, then the pursuit of the extremely dangerous.
Today, China's mercantilism, to a certain extent, the dollar has become the target of mercantilism. In the 1980s, foreign exchange or to import, but in the second half of the 1990s, more foreign exchange in order to ward off risks. Western financial "predators" created by the financial crisis, the developing countries an extremely negative impact. In order to guard against and resist the West's financial sniper, the developing countries should bonus Jichu Exchange, to a certain extent, the result of the national output and a waste of resources, and to a certain extent, for the large western countries, "Jin Gong economy" has contributed to do so.
So, ancient and modern mercantilism the risk is the same, that is, targets of gold or U.S. dollars - the currency devaluation. Today is obviously the dollar is overvalued. Once the depreciation of the dollar store by the developing countries of the wealth will come to naught. Especially today's world has given up Jinbenweizhi currency and the use of heavy metals, such an exchange rate fluctuations in the currency system, the implementation of mercantilism, the greater danger. Therefore, traditional mercantilist goal must be changed, that is, from targeting gold and the dollar into a kind attention to the import, as far as possible, have physical wealth, rather than monetary wealth. To import the substance is effective use of external resources to accelerate domestic economic construction, but it must increase domestic demand, we must have with the appreciation of the RMB. The way to increase domestic demand in addition to major projects on the national debt, increase investment, but also improve the consumption power of low-income population, through tax cuts and increased the money supply, and other means of rapidly improving the people's living standards so that domestic consumption To increase a few percentage points. After 2003, China's treasury bond investments content should be transferred to human resources, increasing public investment in education, and enhance China's "soft power." We need to correct the past but no one see the investment of thinking. Not the start-up in domestic demand, China has long been difficult to change after the export-oriented economy. But if we really want to start domestic demand, not the development of a significant shift in strategic thinking is difficult to complete. So today we need to conduct a thorough understanding of reflection. China to be very balanced development, China is to be internal development. As the world economic situation changes, China's increasingly difficult to rely on exports to boost economic. Through internal development, China must be to stimulating domestic demand. To this end, serious consideration should be given to the agricultural tax relief, consider the compensation for farmers. Use of external resources is China's future development within the only way out.
In particular, we must as far as possible to avoid split development and oppose extravagance and economy. The market economy's competitiveness will be to divide and polarization of rich and the poor, the rich and the poor differentiation of results will appear extravagant consumption. China is to be re-examine their external demand, which external demand due to the inherent structure of the urban and rural, urban and rural areas and a new polarization of wealth lead to the division » How to adjust the distribution of income through domestic adjustment to the foreign demand for imports. Westernization Movement during the Qing dynasty, the Ching court in order to import a German Chinese turret ship Dingyuan, spent hundreds of thousands of farmers at work, to pay mountains of agricultural products, to exchange for a warship. According to the prices at that time, hundreds of German shipbuilding workers in the labour equivalent of more than 100,000 farmers in China's labor. This trade is a lot of resources at the cost of output. However, due to buy ships for national defense needs, despite the extremely high price, the Qing government to buy. China in the development process, there are many such import demand. We attribute this type of import demand in the development or national defense needs. Despite the great demand for such a price, sometimes must pay. But today we are to avoid another demand, that is, demand for luxury. When some people get rich first, the West will have to consume the high-end products. In order to import these luxury high price paid by the significant resources and labor export in exchange for the foreign exchange, such acts is extremely detrimental to developing countries, as the urban-rural dual structure of the more serious in China, especially to guard against such trade objectives and External demand.
Overall, any trade strategy by the country's development goals of the decision. If the goal is the development of its military buildup and war preparations, then all the resources to the inevitable final gathering arms. If the target is high-tech, some of the industrial sector or coastal cities, then the resources in this area is bound to gather. If the public is improving the people's living standards and reduce urban and rural differences, eliminating dual structure as the goal, the allocation of resources is also a kind. China today to profoundly examine their pursuit of goals.
Third, understanding, "Jingong economy" ---- the fact that China's import and export trade should be balanced
At present, people in the U.S. consumer in the world economy as a contribution to the increase of China's exports would like to thank the American mass consumption. But we have to see what the other side, that is, the United States use of the dollar and a strong dollar, cheap to make the world's resources and labor.
Foreign study shows that since 1974, the U.S. productivity growth by 70 percent, but if you remove import effect, many departments only productivity growth of 0.1%. That is to say, except for the contribution of the importing country, the U.S. productivity growth is not large. In the 20th century the last 20 years, the United States do not have any outstanding productivity and prosperity, but it is an imported prosperity. This prosperity is not by the phenomenal growth of the U.S. economy by promoting, but by the production of wealth in these low-income countries the debt lent by the United States to promote.
In mercantilism and Jinbenweizhi, the accumulated trade surplus accumulated a large number of countries of gold, which can be used to pay for future imports. However, in the current international trading system, the trade surplus accumulated over the future of the U.S. dollar this uncertainty is the value of non-convertible currencies. Moreover, these dollar-denominated trade surplus can not be converted to the exporting country's own currency, because they need to reserve up to prevent global financial markets on the export of speculative currency attacks.
When the exporting countries will invest in the current account surplus of U.S. dollars of financial assets, as exports of goods more than imports, the country's economy from exports are not good. The country will be the real wealth is taken in exchange for a pile of currency symbol. Unless the country's imports of goods equivalent to balance the trade, this is valuable foreign exchange reserves. If the exporting country can not balance of trade, the trade surplus to be invested in U.S. bonds. Today, China's foreign exchange reserves of about 1,000 billion U.S. dollars invested in U.S. treasury bonds, to a certain extent, the United States to maintain economic prosperity and the world economy-a common prosperity.
In the 1990s, the Fed clever use of a strong dollar and high interest rates to attract foreign funds, return a lot dollars. U.S. dollar hegemony can make money by printing dollars to fight inflation, but led to the dollar debt bubble. At present, as the situation changes, the dollar is the bubble burst, the dollar's depreciation trend has appeared. China must do early prevention, early adjustment of export-oriented development strategy.
As the trade imbalance is too high valuation of the importing country's currency and low valuation of the currency by promoting exports and, therefore, such a one-way flow of trade imbalance between the two results may be due to the end, a kind of consumption is exporting countries To make its resources to continue, and the other is the importing country's trade deficit has already reached high levels of the extent of re-exporting countries are unwilling to accept the importing country's debt. If you continue such a trade imbalance, then exporting countries have to undertake environmental pollution, low wages, low benefits and the growing poverty of these consequences.
We would also like to clearly understand that the fact that the dollar seigniorage revenue. At present, the world's foreign exchange reserves, the dollar accounted for the proportion of more than 60 percent. According to the IMF Survey, 1998, the United States issued notes 2 / 3 in the offshore flow in the new dollar, about 3 / 4 was held by foreigners, seven countries in U.S. dollar deposits Of the proportion of the money supply more than 50%, 12 countries this ratio exceeds 30% -50%. As for the ratio of between 15-20% of the country more. China's current dollar deposits has reached more than 1,300 billion, accounting for the total amount of currency 10%.
The U.S. dollar as the currency of the fact that carriers, the U.S. Mint was considerable income, that is, notes with a face value of the difference between the cost of printing. It is estimated that the United States Mint's annual income can be accounted for 2.5% of its GDP, which is two 300 billion U.S. dollars. United States Mint in access to income, it is also by the other countries in order to obtain U.S. dollars while exports of cheap goods.
U.S. annual economic growth to a large extent thanks to the sharp increase in imports. Emerging economies continued to make their own currency depreciation subsidies and to expand exports and thereby to repay foreign debt in U.S. dollars marked, so that the dollar relative to local currency debt, more expensive. U.S. imports of cheap goods to ease domestic inflationary pressure, although the United States in the money supply has expanded. In the event behind the Americans with less labor costs in exchange for the more commodity goods. Recently the International Monetary Fund to give Brazil an unprecedented 30 billion U.S. dollars loan, its essence is to save the holders of Brazilian debt of the U.S. multinational banks. This will force the currency devaluation in Brazil, 40 percent of the cases, export more wealth to repay the 30 billion U.S. dollars of debt and interest. Mexico and Indonesia that have occurred this kind of thing. Developing countries each time the substantial depreciation of the currency, is a huge loss of domestic resources.
Currently, Western scholars have a point worth noting, this view: As the past several decades of global trade is the wealth transfer from poor to rich countries, but this inequality of trade diversion is not sustainable, at present, this wealth Transfer of the emerging crisis, the past two years, global trade is shrinking example. This trade will lead to shrinking global slowdown in economic growth. Those relying on exports to maintain growth in the economy should be clearly aware that in recent years, the export decline is not just a cyclical phenomenon, it is likely to be uneven and unequal trade for many years the results. In this case, only those of domestic exports into the development of supplementary rather than destroy the country, can not be big environmental impact. In view of this situation, China should pay special attention not to transfer wealth to the region, should stop the pursuit of predatory competitive edge, turned balance of trade development.
Fourth, China should change to the lender borrowers ---- appreciation of the RMB should be appropriate
China is becoming a borrowing country, the large trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves exist, the essence of which is exported to foreign resources. This is extremely unfavorable to developing countries. To the end of this year, China's foreign exchange reserves will reach nearly 300 billion U.S. dollars. That the year after the development of the situation accordingly, foreign exchange reserves can be quickly reached 400 billion U.S. dollars. Today, China's mercantilism to a certain extent, echoes the large western countries, "Jin Gong economy."
However, due to international economic changes in the situation, increasing the risk of foreign exchange reserves appear. China's foreign exchange reserve accumulation, its essence is to the world China's massive sell their products and assets, access to foreign exchange is the sale of assets or RMB at the cost of labor. The increase in foreign exchange reserves means that the proportion of their assets and reduce the proportion of the assets of other countries to increase means that foreign economic sectors in the GDP increase. High growth in foreign exchange reserves and foreign direct investment into the time, still undervalued yuan, is the loss of the performance of their assets.
In particular the foreign currency reserve assets and wealth is a form of currency, the currency in today's world of ever-changing circumstances, to a large amount of monetary wealth of great risk. 2002 a year's time, the U.S. dollar against the euro has depreciated 18 percent. Therefore, the currency must be as much as possible into a wealth of material wealth. Only the meat is rotten meat in the pan.
Mercantilism is bound to lead to the appreciation of the renminbi, therefore, the appreciation of the renminbi irreversible. In 1995, I clearly put forward the "era of the renminbi to appreciate. Appreciation of the currency of this kind is China's national Biranguilv. Merged in 1994 when the RMB exchange rate has been seriously underestimated, therefore, despite withstood the 1994 and 1995 high domestic inflation and 1997 In the Southeast Asian financial crisis, the renminbi has not devalued, and the appreciation of contrarian. Today, the strength of the renminbi era has arrived. RMB and the strong appreciation of the renminbi, in essence, is the increased use of international resources for the benefit of the Chinese people. China in this Development stage in urgent need of external resources to integrate domestic resources. Adjustment of the strategy is the core of the issue of who is going to borrow. From the development stage, the developing countries is the best of borrowing countries, at least should not prematurely become creditors.